基于系统动力学的房地产证券化水平与房价关联影响的仿真研究

Simulation of the Relationship between the Level of Securities and the Price of Real Estate Based on System Dynamics Model

本文主要研究房地产证券化与房地产市场价格的关联关系,解决房地产证券化是否一定导致房价上升这一疑惑。希望对中国制定针对房地产证券化相关政策提供理论上的参考。本文借助房地产经济学及系统动态学的相关理论,分析了房地产证券化对房地产市场价格的影响途径,建立了相应的系统;动态学模型,进行了仿真数值模拟和灵敏度分析,给出相应政策建议。结论认为房地产证券化并不必然地造成房地产价格的上升或下降,但开发商自有资金可证券化比例对证券化结果影响巨大,存在使房价相对稳定的房地产证券化实施程度。

This paper examines the relationship between the real estate securitization and real estate market price, and try to classify the confusion that whether the real estate securitization must lead to price increase. Our study can provide a theoretical reference for China’s real estate securitization policies. We design a system dynamics model to show how real estate securitization works on price. And then the simulation and sensitivity analysis are provided. It is not determined that real estate securitization must cause market price increase or decrease. The securitization proportion of developer’s funding has an important impact on the result. There is an optimal level of securitization to make the price relatively stable.