基于巴拉萨-萨缪尔森假说的人民币实际汇率研究述评

A Research Commentary on RMB Real Exchange Rate on the Basis of Balassa-Samuelson Hypothesis

在巴拉萨-萨缪尔森假说的基础上对人民币实际汇率进行研究时,许多学者根据我国经济的实际状况对巴拉萨-萨缪尔森假说进行了修正。从研究结论看,大部分学者认为人民币实际汇率变动趋势具有较为典型的巴拉萨-萨缪尔森假说效应,但有些学者的研究结论不支持巴拉萨-萨缪尔森假说,且在实证研究方面,对数据的使用和计量模型的选择也不尽相同。在对相关文献系统整理的基础上,对基于巴拉萨-萨缪尔森假说的人民币实际汇率相关研究进行了评价,并指出其对人民币实际汇率研究的若干启示。

Based on the actual situation of China′s economy,many scholars have amended the Balassa-Samuelson hypothesis（BSH） when doing their research on the real exchange rate of RMB.Their conclusions show that the majority of scholars believe that the altering trend of real exchange rate of RMB is of typical effect of BSH,but some scholars do not agree to the hypothesis.Besides,the data and models they′ve used in their empirical researches are not so identical.This paper,after a systematic collection of the related documents,comments on the studies of the real exchange rate of RMB carried out on the basis of BSH.At the same time,the paper also points out a number of revelations on the studies of the real exchange rate of RMB.