中国沿海和内陆城市住房价格波动差异与动力因素

Fluctuation Differences and Dynamic Factors of Housing Prices in Coastal and Inland Cities of China

研究目的:研究中国城市住房价格短期波动的决定因素,分析均衡因素之外的房价变化自相关和均值回复特点。研究方法:面板误差修正模型。研究结果:沿海和内陆城市房价变化均有回复到均衡价值倾向,但沿海城市的房价变化具有显著自相关特点。研究结论:中国沿海和内陆城市房价波动特点存在明显差异,沿海城市收入高、人口密度大、建设成本增长快等因素促使了房价变化强自相关。

The purposes of this paper are to study the determinants of short-term housing price fluctuation in China and analyze the features of autocorrelation and equilibrating mean value of the housing price variation in addition to the equilibrium factors. Method employed is panel error correction model. The results indicate that the variation of housing prices in coastal and inland cities of China tend to return to the equilibrium value, and meanwhile the housing price variation of coastal cities are obviously auto-correlated. It is concluded that the features of housing price variation of coastal and inland cities of China are remarkably different. The high autocorrelation of housing price variation is resulted from the high income, high population density, rapid increase of construction cost and other factors in coastal cities of China.