装备型号研制项目风险评估指标体系研究

Research on Risk Assessment Index System of Outfit System Model Development Project

从项目外部风险和内部风险两个方面构建了风险评估指标体系,并对指标进行了分析和预处理.运用简单实用的层次分析法,对指标进行权重分析;同时运用系统工程、项目管理、灰色系统理论等方法,建立了导弹武器系统型号研制项目多层次灰色风险评估模型.以某装备型号研制项目为例,根据所建立的评估指标体系和评估模型,对项目研制与定型阶段风险评估的过程进行了详细论述.其评估结果比较符合实际,具有一定的应用价值.

The index system of project risk assessment is established from two parts： the outside risk and the inside risk.Multilevel gray risk assessment model is established by using the methods of system engineering,project management and gray system theory.By taking certain outfit system model development project as an example,the detailed procedures of project risk assessment in development and design finalization stage are elaborated on by using the established index system and models.The assessmeut results show that the index system fits project situation very well,and has definite application value.