耕地非农化与农业经济增长的协整与ECM模型分析——基于安徽省1990—2009年时间序列数据的实证研究

Cointegration and ECM Analysis of Arable Land Conversion and Agricultural Economic Growth——An Empirical Study Based on Anhui's Time Series Data from 1990 to 2009

耕地是最基本的农业生产要素,是实现农业经济增长的物质保障。近年来,由于城市化、工业化、农业结构调整、生态环境变化等原因,大量耕地从原有农业生产领域退出,对农业经济增长和农民生活带来了一定的影响。以安徽省1990—2009年时间序列数据为例,采用协整理论及Granger因果检验,对耕地非农化与农业经济增长的依存关系及因果性的研究表明,耕地非农化与农业产值变动之间构成反向的动态线性关系,耕地面积与农业产值之间存在单向Granger因果关系,而耕地非农化与农业产值变动之间不存在Granger因果关系。其政策含义是:政企银多方合力,通过确立主导产业、培养龙头企业、建立健全农村市场经济体系,推进农业产业化;在现有的土地产权制度条件下,通过健全和完善土地流转机制和农村社会保障机制,确保耕地的合理流转。

As an indispensable basic resource,arable land is an important material guarantee for agricultural economic growth.In recent years,a large number of arable lands withdraw from agricultural production because of urbanization,industrialization,agricultural restructuring,changes in the ecological environment and other reasons,which have caused damage to agriculture economic growth and rural life.Taking Anhui Province as an example,this paper carries cointegration theory and Grange causality test to analyze the dependencies and causality between arable land area conversion and agricultural economic growth with the time series from 1990 to 2009.The result shows that there is a reverse dynamic linear relationship rather than causality between them,and one-directional causality between Anhui province＇s arable land area and agricultural output.The policy implications are agricultural industrialization promotion and arable land conversion rationalization by ways of establishing the leading industries,developing leading enterprises and optimizing the rural market economy,land conversion and social security systems.