历史演变法原理与演变曲线板

PRINCIPLE OF HISTORICAL EVOLUTION METHOD AND ITS MASTER CURVE

根据杨鉴初的历史演变法原理，对苏皖沪（３０°～３６°Ｎ，１１５°～１２５°Ｅ）１９７１ ～１９９７ 年最大震级（ ＭＳ） 形成的时间序列，先进行迭次平滑，再据这些逐趋光滑的地震活动历史演变曲线的外形特征及数值，找出它们之间的联系规律与各自的变化规律：超前性、近似性、准对称性与渐变性。并根据这些规律性制成时间序列演变曲线板：近似板、旋转板与折迭板，对逐年最大震级进行外延验证，以及对１９９８ 年的最大震级做出预报。结果表明：用演变曲线板量取的时间序列外延预报值，与实况的差值都能小于｜０ ．５｜ 级。

Based on the principle of Yang Jianchu's historical evolution method, the time sequence formed with the year maximum magnitude of earthquakes occurred in the area of 30°～36°N and 115°～125°E in 1971～1997 is filtered. The precedencity, proximity, quasi symmetry and progressivity are found in the filtering curves. The prediction master curves of approximition, rotatio and fold are pictured using the propers of the curves obtained with the time sequence. It is indicated that the prediction error of magnitude is less than 0.5, predicting the maximum magnitude of researched area in 1998 with the master curves.