用一个简单海气耦合模式对20世纪90年代厄尔尼诺事件的预报试验

NUMERICAL HINDCAST OF THE 1990's EL NINO EVENTS BY USING A SIMPLE COUPLED MODEL

使用一个动力海洋与统计大气耦合的热带太平洋模式，对２０ 世纪９０ 年代的厄尔尼诺事件进行了数值模拟和预报。结果表明，模式能较好地再现３ 次暖事件的发展和演化过程，也能模拟１９９５／１９９６ 年的冷海温过程。预报试验的结果指出，２０ 世纪 ９０ 年代发生的厄尔尼诺事件具有其特殊性，很难在发展阶段作出准确预报，而一旦形成后，模式仍可对这类事件的成熟位相阶段作出大致提前 ６ 个月的有效预报。文中还用该模式对 １９９７ 年的热带太平洋海表温度作了预报试验，预测 １９９７ 年年底可能发生一次新的厄尔尼诺事件。关键词：２０ 世纪９０ 年代厄尔尼诺，简单海气耦合模式，预报试验。

A tropical Pacific coupled model,which consists of a dynamical ocean model and a statistical atmospheric model,is employed to study the 1990's El Nio events. Evolution process of three El Nio episodes and a La Nina are reproduced by simulation with the observed wind stress. Hindcast experiment results show that the 1990's El Nio events are different from those in history and are difficulty to forecast in the early developing stage. But once the events formed the model has the ability of prediction the peak phase before 6 months. Base on this study,the numerical forecast of 1997's tropical Pacific SSTA has been done. This El Nio event will be developed and reach its mature stage by the end of 1997. o events. Evolution process of three El Nio episodes and a La Nina are reproduced by simulation with the observed wind stress. Hindcast experiment results show that the 1990's El Nio events are different from those in history and are difficulty to forecast in the early developing stage. But once the events formed the model has the ability of prediction the peak phase before 6 months. Base on this study,the numerical forecast of 1997's tropical Pacific SSTA has been done. This El Nio event will be developed and reach its mature stage by the end of 1997. o episodes and a La Nina are reproduced by simulation with the observed wind stress. Hindcast experiment results show that the 1990's El Nio events are different from those in history and are difficulty to forecast in the early developing stage. But once the events formed the model has the ability of prediction the peak phase before 6 months. Base on this study,the numerical forecast of 1997's tropical Pacific SSTA has been done. This El Nio event will be developed and reach its mature stage by the end of 1997. o events are different from those in history and are difficulty to forecast in the early developing stage. But once the events formed the model has the ability of prediction the peak phase before 6 months. Base on this study,the numerical forecast of 1997's tropical Pacific SSTA has been done. This El Nio event will be developed and reach its mature stage by the end of 1997. o event will be developed and reach its mature stage by the end of 1997.