黄河上游地区降水对水资源的影响

The Impact of Precipitation on the Water Resource over the Upper Reaches of the Huanghe River

利用１９５９～１９９７ 年黄河上游地区降水、流量资料，用 Ｅ Ｏ Ｆ、 Ｒ Ｅ Ｏ Ｆ、功率谱、趋势分析等数理统计预报方法，分析黄河上游地区降水与流量之间关系及降水变化趋势，并用逐步回归、最优子集回归方法建立流量预测的最优评估模型。

Based on the precipitation and flow curve data during 1959—1997,the relationship between the precipitation and the flow curve in the upper reaches of the Huanghe river was analysed by using of the mathematical statistic forecasting methods of EOF,REOF,power spectrum,and trend analysis etc.The variation trend of precipitation over the upper reaches of the Huanghe river was also studied.The optimum assesment model of the flow curve prediction was established by means of the stepwise regression and optimum subset regression.