工程项目群安全评价分析模型研究

Research on Safety Evaluation Model for Engineering Multi-program Group

在项目群大系统工程的安全综合评价分析中,存在较为复杂的评价要求。利用统计学的理论方法,采用单项指标与综合建模及量纲归一技术,全面论述安全评价的目的、意义和功能。首先构建一组综合无量纲指数作为安全指数,提出项目群安全指数综合分析模型、安全业绩综合考核模型和项目群安全率的分析模型,测评项目群系统的安全综合业绩,并对项目群安全建设的投入产出作出分析,建立工程项目群重大事故损失影响强度分析模型,最后通过实例计算工程项目群最优安全贡献率,以验证相关的数学方法和模型的可行性。

In the comprehensive safety evaluation for engineering multi-program group,there is a more complex evaluation requirement.This paper applies the theory of statistical methods,adopts single index and integrates modeling and dimensionless normalization technique to discuss the purpose,significance and function of safety assessment.A group of dimensionless indexes is constructed as safety index.Three analysis models for safety evaluation are discussed,including safety comprehensive analysis model,safety performance analysis model and safety contribution rate model.Then the safety indexes of these models are deduced and built up respectively.Furthermore,the input-output analysis is conducted for safety construction of engineering multi-program group,and an influencing analysis model for major accident loss is established.At last,an example is illustrated to verify the feasibility of relevant mathematical methods and models.