基于空间马尔科夫链的关中地区生态安全时空演变分析

The spatial-temporal dynamics of Guanzhong eco-security based on spatial Malcov Chains

生态系统内部和生态系统之间都不是封闭的,各要素间均存在着相互作用。利用已获得的陕西关中地区生态安全格网化评价结果数据,运用空间马尔科夫链对该区域的生态安全时空演变进行了分析,得出以下四个结论:①区域背景在关中地区生态安全趋同时空演变过程中起着相当重要作用;②不同区域背景在区域生态安全等级转移中所起的作用也各不相同;③一个区域生态安全等级向上或向下转移的概率与该区域和周围邻居之间的差异程度不成比例;④空间马尔可夫转移概率矩阵为"区域趋同的时空演变"现象提供了空间上的解释。实践表明,空间马尔可夫链方法为定量分析地理环境对区域生态安全变化的空间效应提供了方法依据,值得进一步研究和讨论。

Ecology shows that there are interactions existing within every ecosystem and among different ecosystems.This paper made use of the result grid data produced in evaluating the eco-security of Guanzhong region and Malcov chain to analyze the spatial and temporal changes of regional eco-security.Some conclusions were drawn as follow： ①regional background acted as a very important role in the convergent process of spatial-temporal dynamics of Guanzhong regional eco-security;②the different regional background had the different effects on the exchanges of eco-security ranks;③t he probability of regional eco-security rank transfer up or down was not proportional to the difference between the region and its neighbors;④ the spatial Malcov transferring probability matrix provided a spatial interpretation of the phenomenon of spatial-temporal dynamics of regional convergence.The result indicates that the method of the spatial Malcov chains provides the approach for analyzing quantitatively the spatial effects of geo-environment on regional eco-security change,which is worth further research and deliberation.