农业化肥污染的政策成因及对策分析

Analysis of the policy causes of pollution from agriculture fertilizers and its countermeasures

化肥污染是农村面源污染的重要组成部分,如何解决该问题已经成为中国学者热议的话题。为了定量分析国家政策对化肥过量施用的影响,基于我国1998—2007年各省市的面板数据,借助STATA软件包和化肥施用效用模型假设,对其进行了回归分析。结果表明:一是随着经济发展水平的提升,农业化肥污染仍会不断加剧。二是多年来国家给予化肥企业"优惠+补贴+限价"的化肥行业发展政策是化肥过量施用的根本政策原因,当前国家惠农政策有助于降低化肥的需求量。三是当国家取消对化肥企业的补贴政策,继续当前的惠农政策时,则农民直补政策需以农民有利于环境的施肥方式为前提。四是若国家继续当前化肥行业发展政策和惠农政策,则视国家给予化肥企业的补贴确定一个直补额度,当对农民直补小于该额度时,则直补有利于农民减少对化肥的需求;但当直补超过这一额度时,农民则会增加对化肥的需求,因此后者需以农民施肥行为有利于环境为前提。

Fertilizer pollution is an important component of rural non-point pollution.Thus,the problem of how to deal with it has become a hot topic among Chinese scholars.In this paper,the authors attempt to analyze the reason why the demand of fertilizer is so high in China.The analysis is based on panel data from the provinces of China from 1998 to 2007,and on the assumption of a particular demand model of fertilizer.From this analysis we draw the following conclusion： Firstly,given the level of economic development,agricultural fertilizer pollution will continue growing.Secondly,the existing policy that combines subsidies and price control in the fertilizer industry may be the main reason of excess use of fertilizer.Now,the State preferential agricultural policy has contributed to reducing the demand for fertilizer.Thirdly,if the country abolishes the subsidy policy on fertilizer companies in order to continue the current preferential agricultural policy,the policy of direct subsidies to farmers needs to add as a precondition that farmers apply environmentally friendly fertilization methods.The fourthly,if the country continues the policies of the fertilizer industry and the preferential agricultural policies,then,if the subsidies are below a given level,depending on the amount of subsidies given to the different fertilizer business,an increase in the direct subsidies to the farmers will help them to reduce their demand of fertilizer,but when the direct subsidy exceeds the given level,then the farmers will increase their demand of fertilizer.In the latter situation one should require that the farmers use environmentally friendly fertilizers.