东北地区夏季降水变化特征及预报模型的构建

Change of Summer Precipitation in Northeast and Establishment of Forecasting Model

基于东北地区27个测站195-2010年夏季降水资料，采用10年滑动平均和逐步回归趋势分析法分析和预测了东北地区夏季降水量随时间的变化趋势，并通过单相关系数法研究了74项环流指数与东北地区夏季降水量的关系，发现西半球副高指数、极涡指数、东亚槽强度及编号台风与东北地区夏季降水量均存在很好的线性相关关系，据此建立了逐步回归预报模型，拟合和预报了东北地区夏季降水量。结果表明，该模型预报精度较高、结果可信。

According to the summer precipitation data of 27 hydrologic stations in Northeast of China from 1951 to 2010, the moving average method and stepwise regression trend analysis technology are applied to predict the variation trend of summer precipitation with time. And then the method of simple correlation coefficient is used to analyze the relationship between 74 items of circulation indexes and summer precipitation in Northeast area. It finds that there exist good linear relationships between summer precipitation and subtropical high index of the western hemisphere, polar vortex in- dex, east Asia slot strength and numbered typhoons. Finally, the stepwise regression forecast model is established to fit and forecast the summer precipitation. The results show that the forecasting model has high precision and reliability.