摘要
针对水资源系统动力学模型参数的不确定性问题，利用模糊推理理论聚合分析了工业产值和人口增长速率的不确定性，引入参数“是否考虑参数不确定性”，将模糊推理理论嵌入系统动力学模型中进行水资源系统模拟。结果表明．参数不确定性对水资源供需状况引起了一定的扰动，进行参数不确定性分析后，2020年总需水量相比不考虑参数不确定性的条件下增加了5．14％，供水率增加了4．9％；2003～2020年，流域供水率从81．94％增至89．86％，衣业需水比例从89．53％减至65．12％，流域需水结构趋于合理。
According to parameter uncertainty of water resources system dynamics model, fuzzy inference theory （FIT） is applied to analyze the uncertainty of population growth rate and industry output value. The system dynamics （SD） model embedded FIT is established to simulate water resources in Shiyang River Basin by considering parameter un- certainty or not. The results show that the parameter uncertainty has certain disturbance of supply and demand status in water resources system; compared with not considering parameter uncertainty analysis, the total water demand decreases 5.14% and water supply ratio increases about 4.9% in 20203 water supply ratio increases from 81.94% to 89.86% while agriculture water ratio decreases from 89.53 % to 65.12 % during 2003 to 2020; water demand structure in basin tends to be rational.
出处
《水电能源科学》
北大核心
2011年第5期22-25,66,共5页
Water Resources and Power
基金
陕西省自然科学基金资助项目(2009JQ5002)
关键词
系统动力学
参数不确定性
模糊推理
石羊河流域
system dynamics
parameter uncertainty
fuzzy inference
Shiyang River Basin
