南苏丹公投背后的石油因素及对中国在苏丹石油投资的影响

Oil Factors behind Southern Sudan Referendum and Implications to Chinese Oil Investment in Sudan

按照苏丹南北方《全面和平协议》的规定,2011年1月苏丹南部举行了全民公投,结果有98.83%的选民投票支持南部地区从苏丹分离。石油利益分配争端是苏丹长期内战的重要因素。苏丹拥有丰富的石油和天然气资源,保守估计至少有80×108～100×108bbl,但石油储量的70%在南方。而南方现有的石油出口管道都是向北方向的,出口港口是北方的苏丹港,炼油厂也建在北方。同时富油地区阿卜耶伊的归属问题一直悬而未决。美国充当了苏丹分离的重要推手,其目的是肢解苏丹,玩弄"分而治之"的伎俩,延滞非洲复兴;同时为自己解套,从而有理由允许美国公司进入苏丹争夺石油资源。中国是苏丹第一大贸易伙伴,石油是中国涉足苏丹最深入的领域。苏丹已成为中国第六大石油进口国,中国有6%的石油进口来自苏丹,中国的利益遍布苏丹的石油产业链中。南苏丹独立后,有可能采取向美国和西欧石油公司倾斜的石油投资政策。为了维护中国在苏丹的石油利益,中国及时采取与苏丹南北双方均衡发展关系的措施,与南苏丹政府建立了友好合作关系。作为世界第二大经济体,中国仍将是南苏丹石油的重要买家。南苏丹的发展需要中国,中国有意愿也有能力对南苏丹的发展提供力所能及的帮助。中国此次对苏丹局势变化的主动应对措施,应当成为有益的经验。要提高、扩展中国海外获取石油权益的能力,根本在于提高中国的战略影响力。

A referendum took place in Southern Sudan in January 2011on whether the region should remain a part of Sudan or become independent.This referendum is a consequence of the ＂Comprehensive Peace Agreement＂ between the north（the Khartoum central government） and the south.The results turned out to be 98.83% voting in favor of independence.The dispute over allocation of petroleum interest is a key factor behind the long civil war in Sudan.Sudan has rich petroleum and natural gas resources.By conservative estimates,the country owns at least 80×108-100×108bbl of hydrocarbon resources with 70% of its oil in the south.However,all existing oil export pipelines in the south are northward.The oil is shipped for export at Port Sudan and all refineries are also located in the north.In addition,the sovereignty of oil-rich Abyei has remained in dispute as well.The United States is a key force behind the separatist movement in Sudan and its aims are to dismember Sudan by employing the divide-and-rule strategy to delay the rejuvenation of Africa and meanwhile pave the way for American companies to scramble for Sudanese oil resources.China is Sudan′s largest trade partner and oil is the Sudanese industrial sector involving the deepest Chinese participation.Sudan is now China′s sixth largest oil supplier and 6% of oil imported by China comes from Sudan.Chinese interests have permeated all links of the Sudanese oil industrial chain.Once becoming independent,Southern Sudan may skew toward American and West European oil companies in making oil investment policies.To maintain Chinese interest in the Sudanese oil sector,China has attached equal importance to its relationships with the north and south of Sudan and developed an amicable relationship with the Southern Sudanese government.As the world′s second largest economy,China will remain a key buyer of Southern Sudanese oil.Southern Sudan needs China in developing economy and China is also willing and able to provide the help it can to Southern Sudan in developing economy.China′s proactive countermeasures towards the situation in Sudan this time should be valuable experience.The key to raising China′s ability to secure oil interest overseas is to strengthen China′s strategic influence.