发展系统的持续性研究

Research on the Sustainability of Development Systems

复杂系统的演化总是确定性和不确定性的统一．发展系统演化的方向存在着多种可能，或持续、或停滞或循环．本文基于自组织理论，对发展系统的持续性问题进行了较系统的研究．首先，从Logistic曲线出发对发展过程和发展阶段进行了分析；进而比较了发展持续性模式与非持续性模式；在对模型参数进行分析的基础上描述了可持续发展系统的理想演化模式，提出了可持续发展的持续性目标实现的途径，即保持适当的发展速度、高效地利用自然资源和保护生态环境．

The evolution of complex systems depends on both determinacy and indeterminacy, which may be sustained, stagnated, or circulated. Based on self-organization theories, the sustainability of development systems is researched in this paper. Firstly, the development courses and stages following logistic curve are analyzed. Then, the differences between sustained development model and non-sustained development model are discussed. On the basis of the analysis of the model's parameters, an ideal model of sustainable development system is described, and the ways to the realiZation of sustained development are Proposed, that is, to maintain a suitable developing speed, use natural resources effectively, and protect the ecology and environment.