县域出口贸易的空间相关性分析——以江苏省为例

Spatial Correlation Analysis of County Export Trade:A Case Study of Jiangsu Province

出口贸易作为一种具有较强示范效应和溢出效应的经济活动,在相互临近的地理区位上应存在空间相关性。文章借助空间滞后模型(SLM)和空间误差模型(SEM),利用空间面板数据对江苏省县域出口贸易的空间相关性进行了计量分析。实证结果表明:(1)仅从一个相邻地区的县域出口分析,江苏县域出口贸易没有表现出空间相关性;(2)江苏县域的出口贸易整体上存在较强的空间相关性,周边地区的总体出口贸易对其有促进作用,面积较大或经济规模较大的县市的空间依赖性更加显著;(3)江苏县域对外贸易的区域差距相当程度上来源于空间距离,发达地区之间对外贸易的溢出效应和辐射效应会强化这种区域差距。

Export trade is taken as an economic activity with strong demonstration effect and spillover effect, and spatial correlation should exist in export trade in adjacent geographical locations. This paper applies SLM and SEM models to make an econometric analysis on the spatial correlation of county export trade in Jiangsu province by spatial panel dam. The empirical results are shown as follows： firstly, from the angle of county export trade in an adjacent area, the county export trade in Jian- gsu province is not featured by spatial correlation; secondly, on the whole, there is spatial correlation in county export trade in Jiangsu province which is promoted by the whole export trade in surrounding areas, and export trade in counties and cities with larger areas or economic scales is significantly featured by spatial correlation; thirdly, regional differentials in county export trade in Jiangsu province, which are owing to spatial distances to a certain extent, are strengthened by the spillover effect and radiation effect of the trade among developed areas.