基于地区投入产出模型的干旱区水资源效益评价——以黑河流域甘肃张掖市为例

Evaluation of Water Benefit in Arid Area based on Regional Input-Output Model:A case of Zhangye City in Gansu Province,China

张掖市农业特别是种植业,对水的直接以及间接消耗无论是数量还是比重都非常高,并且农产品的调出调入对张掖市水资源的调出调入量相应影响也比较大。张掖市过度依赖种植业的产业结构特征造成其对水资源的过度依赖,进而又对水资源的供给产生了巨大压力。论文通过对地区层面水资源的投入产出模型乘数分析,认为调整产业结构,实现产业升级,大力发展高效节水现代农业,降低农业尤其是种植业在张掖国民经济中所占比重,从而彻底改变区域对水资源的过度依赖和高消耗现状,是解决内陆河流域干旱区水资源危机的根本途径。

Agriculture especially plantindustry of Zhangye City in Gansu Province of China consumes directly and indirectly a big amount of water, and the export and import of regional agricultural products have also significant effect on the export and import of water in Zhangye. The excessive dependence on plantindustry of economy leads to excessive dependence on water resources in Zhangye, and it causes a great pressure on water supply. Based on the input-output model, a multiplier analysis of water resource benefit at regional level is conducted in this paper. The results show that it is important for the solving of water crisis in inland arid area to adjust industrial structure, upgrade the industries, develop a high efficiency water-saving agriculture, reduce proportion of agriculture, especially planting at the level of regional economy.