摘要
依据中国网民和网站数量等主要发展指标,采用格兰杰因果检验对网民增长与网站发展的关系进行了检验,并用Logistic成长曲线模拟了中国互联网发展的生命周期特点,验证了互联网发展过程中网民和网站发展的优先关系。结果表明,网民增长是网站发展的格兰杰原因,但是网站发展不是网民增长的格兰杰原因。中国网站进入成长期的时点比网民滞后,进入成熟期的时点比网民提前,呈现出比较典型的"晚熟早衰"型曲线,网站发展平均滞后于网民增长两年左右,中国互联网发展广度有余而深度不足。
According to the development indexes of China＇s netizens and sites number,this paper verifies the relationship between netizens growth and websites development adopting Granger causality test,simulates the life cycle of Chinese Internet development adopting the Logistic growth curve,and verifies the development priority of netizens and Internet sites in Chinese Internet development process.The results show that netizens growth is the granger cause of websites development,but websites development doesn＇t granger cause in netizens growth.The starting point of Chinese website growth period lags behind the starting point of Chinese netizen growth period,the starting point of Chinese website mature period is ahead of the starting point of Chinese netizen mature period,which presents a typical late-mature and premature senility curve,and the average lagging time is two years.The results also indicate that the Chinese Internet development is of abundant breadth and insufficient depth.
出处
《情报科学》
CSSCI
北大核心
2011年第5期788-792,共5页
Information Science
基金
国家社会科学基金后期资助项目(10FTQ003)
江苏省高校青蓝工程资助项目
