单极体系的影响与中国的战略选择

System Effect and State Behavior under Unipolarity:an Analysis of China’s Strategic Choice

尽管冷战后形成的单极体系已存在20年之久,但是学术界对这一特殊国际结构的研究尚不充分。本文考察了单极结构在体系层面的基本特征以及这种结构在单元层面造成的影响,尤其关注单极体系的稳定性以及这种结构下主要国家的行为倾向。从现实主义有关国际体系变迁的理论论述出发,本文认为美国主导的单极结构正处于弱化过程中,而无政府状态下大国竞争的压力和政治经济发展不平衡规律是削弱这一结构的基本动力。由于中国是单极体系下成长最为迅速的国家,与美国之间构成崛起国与霸权国的关系,为了摆脱单极体系下的崛起困境,中国需要采用各种战略手段以规避不利冲击和反应,保障国家的和平崛起。

Although it has been more than 20 years since the formation of the unipolar system after the Cold War, academic researches on this subject are far from adequate. This paper examines the basic characteristics of the unipolar structure and its impacts on the international system and state behavior. Based on the realist theory on transformation of the international system, this paper argues that the unipolar structure as dominated by the US is weakening, mainly driven by the competition between powers and the unbalanced economic and political development. At last, some suggestions on China’s strategic choice is given in the concluding part.