经济开放度、汇率改革与货币政策有效性——基于中国数据的经验分析

Openness,Exchange Rate Reform and Monetary Policy Efficiency——Empirical Analysis Based on Chinese Data

开放经济条件对货币政策的有效性产生了复杂的影响。通过修正的Karras模型,运用中国1995年第二季度—2010年第三季度的相关数据进行了实证研究,结果表明,经济开放度的提高将削弱我国货币政策的产出效应,但2005年的汇率改革对产出的影响并不显著;货币政策对价格的影响将随着经济开放度的提高而加强,但汇率改革却在一定程度上削弱了货币政策的价格效应。

Economic openness has complicated effects on the effectiveness of monetary policy. By modifying the output and price model proposed by Karras, this paper analyzes the effectiveness of China＇ s monetary policy by using quarterly data from1995：2 to 2010： 3. The main conclusions are as follows： while the increasing openness will weaken the output effect of monetary policy, the exchange rate reform does not affect the output remarkably. Improvement of openness will strengthen the price effect of monetary policy but the exchange rate reform has a negative effect on it to a certain extent.