技术进步和结构调整对天津市工业废水排放变化贡献分析

Effects of technology progress and industry structure on the industrial wastewater discharge of Tianjin

为了阐明经济发展同环境污染之间的相互关系,本文从技术进步和产业结构入手,系统分析了天津市1996—2008年工业废水排放的变化趋势.研究结果表明,废水排放量与人均工业产值之间存在倒U型曲线关系,符合环境库兹涅兹曲线.相对于1996年,2008年技术进步使废水排放水平万元产值减少了7.8t,但产业结构调整使废水排放水平万元产值最多只减少了0.33t.技术进步是天津市主要行业的工业废水排放强度大幅降低的主要影响因素,而产业结构调整并没有明显改变天津市支柱行业,对废水排放水平降低的作用不如技术进步.

The purpose of this study is to analyze the effects of technological progress and industrial structure on the industrial wastewater discharge in Tianjin from 1996 to 2008 in order to provide support for water pollution control and management in Tianjin in the near future.Based on analysis of industrial wastewater discharged in Tianjin during 1996—2008,an inverted-U-shape relationship exists between the volume of industrial wastewater discharged and industrial output per capita,.Results of a decomposition model indicated that the discharge level of industrial wastewater was reduced by 7.8 tons per 10000 industrial output in 2008 compared with that in 1996.However,the maximal decrease induced by industry structural adjustment was only 0.33 ton per 10000 industrial output.Technological progress played a major role in reducing the discharge of industrial wastewater in Tianjin because it decreased the wastewater discharge intensity of the industries that contribute most to industrial wastewater discharge of Tianjin.Industry structural adjustment did not change the main industries of Tianjin,and played less of a role in the decrease of industrial wastewater discharge rate than the progress in technology.