以货币政策和宏观审慎监管应对资产价格泡沫

Utilizing Monetary Policy and Macro-Prudential Regulation to Cope with Asset Price Bubble

由本次全球金融危机引发的资产价格与货币政策、宏观审慎监管之间关系研究的热潮是对以往货币政策和宏观审慎政策理论的一次深刻反思,将有可能导致理论上的重大突破和政策实践上的重大调整。这是当前全球货币政策理论和实践领域的最前沿、最热门的课题。从近期国外机构的研究来看,认为:(1)现有的通货膨胀指标不能全面准确反映货币购买力的变化,必然导致资产价格泡沫周期;(2)可以从经济金融变量中提取资产价格泡沫形成的早期预警信息,这为采用"逆风而动"的货币政策策略创造了条件;(3)现行的货币政策框架需要调整,以抑制资产价格泡沫的形成;(4)调整后的货币政策策略仍不足以应对金融失衡,需改进宏观审慎监管,与货币政策一起共同应对金融失衡。国外的研究对我国的政策实践具有借鉴意义。

Arising from the crisis, the wave of studying the relationship between asset price bubbles and monetary policy and macro-prudential regulation represents a deep reflection on the past monetary policy and prudential policies, which possibly leads to the breakthrough in theories and adjustment in practice. This is the hottest and most leading topic in the research field of global monetary policy theories and practices. The research shows that： （1） the current inflation indicator can not fully reflect the changes of monetary purchasing power, which may surely leads to asset price cycle; （2） it is possible to detect the early warning signal of the formation of costly asset price bubble from the economic and financial indicators, so as to adopt a so-called headwiud strategy-; （3） the current monetary policy framework needs to be adjusted in order to stymie the formation of asset price bubble; （4） in order to better correct the financial imbalance, the macro-prudential policy also needs to be improved so as to function together with the monetary policy. These abroad researches on the topic are meaningful for China＇s policy practice in dealing with asset price bubbles.