基于典型相关分析的经济周期同步性实证研究——以海峡西岸与台湾经济数据为例

An Empirical Research of Business Cycle Synchronicity basing on Canonical Correlation Analysis——Take the Case of the West Bank of the Strait and the Taiwan

以海峡西岸和台湾为例,通过对1990年以来两地区经济周期同步性的实证分析可知,当以GDP作为衡量指标时,发现两地区经济不仅在长期内存在共同趋势,而且在短期内两地区的产出也存在共同周期;当以投资、消费等经济指标作为衡量指标时,发现这两组经济指标之间高度相关,这充分说明海峡西岸与台湾经济周期的同步程度非常显著。

The paper studies synchronicity of business cycle from canonical correlation,taking an exmple of the West Bank of the Strait and the Taiwan.We find that there is a common trend in long term and a common cycle in short term between them with GDP as measure indicators and canonical correlation coefficient between ttheir main economic indicators with investment,consumption and so on as measure indicators by empirical research on data of the two region since 1990.The result illustrates synchronization between the West Bank of the Strait and the Taiwan is very significant.