安全疏散模型研究

Study on Evacuation Model

以四川桑枣中学师生逃生奇迹为背景,用初等数学建模方法建立3种疏散模型对此进行研究,找出人员逃生时间和速度、人与人之间间隙及其他变量之间的关系,并借助实测数据和经验数据对三种模型求解,用于推断四川桑枣中学师生能在1分36秒内成功逃生的可能性.结论是:组织单队(口字模型)疏散是不成功的,组织双队(吕字模型)疏散可以成功,但要把人与人前后之间距离(含人体本身厚度,单位:m)控制在[0.5,0.8]小范围内,速度(单位:m/s)控制在[1.2,1.8]小范围内.而组织三队(品字模型)疏散则更容易成功,控制间距扩大到[0.5,1.3]区间,疏散奔走速度扩大到[0.71,1.72]范围内便可安全疏散.

With he background of the miraculous performance in Sangzao Middle school, we use three models to find out time and vvelocity of personnel evacuate, and the relationship between variables. We solve the model through the use of measurement data and empirieal data. The conclusion of this paper is： model A is unsuccessful; Model B is successful, but the distance between people should be controlled in the range[0.5,0.8], and the velocity should be controlled in the range [1.2,1.8]; Model C is the best, because the permitted range os distance between people is extended to [0.5,1.3], and the permitted range of velocity is extended to [0.71, 1.72].