我国出口汇率传递率行业和国家差异的实证研究

An Empirical Study on the Differences of ERPT into China's Exports at the Industry Level and Variations across Import Countries

本文基于月度单位出口价值和汇率数据,采用固定效应面板数据模型分析了2005年6月-2008年12月间人民币汇率变动对中国出口价格的短期汇率传递率的行业和国别差异。研究表明,中国出口的314个HS4行业的平均汇率传递率和整体汇率传递率都很高,接近于完全传递,但不同行业的汇率传递率差异非常大,其中有14个HS4行业的按市场定价系数大于0.5,且涵盖食品、化工、纺织、钢铁、机械等多个HS1行业。在对15个HS2行业10大贸易伙伴按市场定价系数进行的国别差异估计中,发现我国出口对美国存在明显的按市场定价行为,对其他贸易伙伴汇率传递率近似完全传递。这意味着试图通过人民币升值来改善美国对华贸易逆差的政策效应会被削弱,同时也表明我国应加强与东亚贸易伙伴的区域经济合作,并提高出口商抵御汇率风险的能力。

Based on monthly export unit value and exchange rate data and using the fixed effect panel data model,this paper analyzes the differences of ERPT into China＇s exports at the industry level and variations across import countries from June 2005 to December 2008.The estimation shows the average ERPT of 314 HS4 industries is nearly complete but there are huge differences among industries,the ERPT of 14 of which are found to be over 0.5 covering such HS1 industries as food,chemicals,textiles,steal and mechanics.The study of the ERPT of 15 HS2 industries＇ exports to top 10 partners indicates that China＇s exports to the US show very obvious Pricing-to-Market behavior and are almost complete for exports to other trade partners.The above results imply that the policy effect of improving the US＇s trade balance through RMB appreciation will be weakened,and China should strengthen the regional economic cooperation with the eastern Asian trade partners and decrease the exporters＇ foreign exchange risk exposure.