基于模糊期望值模型的配电网网架规划

Distribution Network Planning Based on Fuzzy Expected Value Model

传统配电网网架规划中,不确定规划参数的处理是规划的难点。为深入研究该问题,考虑了负荷预测值的不确定性,引入可信性理论和不确定规划方法,建立了基于模糊期望值模型的配电网网架规划模型,并采用遗传算法求解。该模型采用梯形模糊变量表示负荷预测值,其目标函数和约束条件均具有明确的数学意义,可采用严格的数学方法求解,克服了传统配电网网架规划模型没有考虑负荷预测结果的不确定性,或者所建立的模糊规划模型不合理且没有明确数学意义的缺陷。算例表明,与确定性配电网网架优化规划相比,该方法所求得的配电网网架规划方案对于未来负荷的不确定性具有更强的适应性。

In traditional distribution network planning,uncertain planning parameters is difficult to deal with.To study further this problem,load forecast values is taken into account and the credibility theory and uncertain programming is introduced into it.Then a distribution network planning model is presented,which is based on fuzzy expected value model.The optimal solution is found using genetic algorithm.In this model,trapezoidal fuzzy variable is used to represent load predictive value.Moreover,the objective function and constraints of the model possess definite mathematical meaning,and the solution can be found by the strict mathematical approach.This model overcomes the defects of traditional distribution network planning model,such as,neglects the fuzziness of the load forecasting results or constructed fuzzy optimal planning model has no obvious mathematical meaning.An example illustrates that comparing to the traditional distribution network planning,the grid planning result obtained by this method is more adaptable to the uncertainty of the load in the future.