西北太平洋热带气旋源地、强度及其关联性的统计研究

A Statistical Study of Origin and Intensity of Tropical Cyclone on the North Western Pacific

该研究使用方差分析、非参数检验等推断统计方法,对1949-2008年西北太平洋2029个热带气旋(TC)资料的气候特征进行统计分析。结果表明:(1)82.65%的热带气旋产生在纬度5°～25°N和经度110°～160°E区域中;其中14°～19°N、115°～120°E的区域(5°×5°面积)是热带气旋生成最多区域,其位于南中国海东北部、吕宋岛西侧的狭小海面。(2)西北太平洋热带气旋源地的季节变化:1-4月较偏南偏东,产生范围相对集中;5-6月源地中心向北变化;7-9月产生的热带气旋不仅频数多而且分布范围广;10-12月份源地的中心则向南转移。(3)热带气旋强度随季节变化,冬季1月,2月气旋强度最弱、春、夏气旋强度强于冬季,春夏季节内强度无显著变化、秋季台风最强。(4)统计显示,近60年来,热带气旋强度随生成源地纬度偏南而增强,随源地经度偏东增强,经度比纬度的影响更为显著;但是源地的经、纬度与热带气旋强度呈一定的交互影响。该研究是首次将方差分析、非参数检验等推断统计方法应用于热带气旋气候特征研究,提高了对西北太平洋热带气旋源地、强度及其关联性的认识。

An inferencial statistical study on climate features of cyclones activities in the North Western Pacific was conducted by using 2029 tropical cyclones data during 60 years（1949 to 2008）.The statistics showed：The most frequency region of cyclones origination lies in 9°～14°N and 115°～120°E within 5°×5°area,it is a narrow and small area west of Luzon Island in north eastern of South China Sea. Cyclones originate in more south and east during January to April.Source region center of cyclones moves northward during May and June,southward during October and December.Tropical cyclones appears gradually stronger from winter to autumn.Interactive influence exists between latitude and longitude directions.By introducing the new statistical method,the present study revealed new climate features of typhoon activities in this region.