中国通货膨胀主要影响因素的判定与阐释

Estimation and Explanation on Main Influencing Factors of Inflation in China

本文研究了1995—2010年间我国通货膨胀的主要影响因素,并在此基础上对现实经济中通货膨胀的形成机制进行逻辑上的因果关系阐述。通过构建包括过剩流动性、需求拉动、成本推动以及国外通胀传递四类因素的通货膨胀动态模型,凭借偏相关系数的大小判断出四类因素影响通货膨胀的相对重要程度。实证结果表明:我国通货膨胀的主要影响因素为流动性过剩,需求拉动次之,成本推动排第三,国外通胀传递对通货膨胀的影响最小。究其根源,在现有汇率体制下央行由于巨额外汇储备而向市场投放过量货币的货币被动超发以及信贷扩张是造成流动性过剩的主要原因。过度需求一方面来源于净出口扩大形成巨额外汇储备,而留在国内的庞大的纯购买力;另一方面,样本期间相对宽松的宏观经济环境推动总需求扩张。过剩流动性和过度需求相互影响,过度需求以市场上充裕的货币供应和宽松的宏观政策环境为条件,两者相互作用,共同推动物价上涨。

This article investigates the major infuluencing factors of inflation between 1995--2010 in China. And on the basis of empirical results we articulate the logical causality of the inflation formation mechanism in real economy. By developing an inflation dynamic model containing excess liquidity, excess-demand, cost-push and foreign inflation delivery, we can find the factor＇s relative importance on inflation by means of the scale of respective partial correlation coefficient. Empirical evidence shows that among the four factors of inflation, excess liquidity has the most important effect, followed by excess-demand, and the cost-push, and the foreign inflation delivery has the least effect. Trace to its source, the main reason for excess liquidity are central bank＇s passive money supply in order to hedge great foreign exchange under the existing exchange rate system and credit expansion. Excess demand comes from the following two aspects, on one hand, net exports expanding formulats a huge foreign reserve and stays pure purchasing power in demostic, on the other hand, the relatively loose macroeconomic environment to promote demand expansion. In a word, excess liquidity and excess demand act or react on each other, excess demand is on condition of excess money supply in the market and loose macroscopic policy environment. They interact and push up prices.