基于系统动力学方法预测中国的煤炭投资需求

Forecasting the Demand of Coal Investment in China Based on System Dynamics Approach

煤炭投资涉及到勘探、开发、采选、更新改造、库存等很多环节,投资系统内部动态关系错综复杂,文中采用系统动力学方法预测中国2006 2050年的煤炭投资需求.结果表明,"十一五"期间,中国煤炭投资需求旺盛,快速攀升;从"十二五"初期开始,煤炭投资逐步滑落,但滑落速度逐渐放缓.大中型煤矿的基本建设投资是煤炭总投资的主要组成部分(62%～64%);然后是大中型煤矿的更新改造投资(28%～29%),勘探投资(5%～6%),小型煤矿投资比例最小(1%～4%).

Coal investment involves numerous sections,including exploration,explitation, mining,renovation,inventory etc.The dynamic interactions with complex exist within the investment system.This paper uses the system dynamics approach to forecast the coal investment demand of China during the years of 2006—2050.The results indicate that,in the 11^（th）Five-Year Plan period（2006—2010）,the overall coal investment demand may flourish in China;but from the 12^（th）Five-Year period,coal investment demand may see a gradual decline with ever-decreasing speed.Having the investment structure in view,the infrastructure invesment of large and medium coal mines accounts for the main part of the total coal invesment （62%—64%）,followed by the renovation investment of large and medium coal mines（28%～29%）,exploratory development investment（5%~6%）,and small coal mine investment （1%~4%）.