摘要
煤炭投资涉及到勘探、开发、采选、更新改造、库存等很多环节,投资系统内部动态关系错综复杂,文中采用系统动力学方法预测中国2006 2050年的煤炭投资需求.结果表明,"十一五"期间,中国煤炭投资需求旺盛,快速攀升;从"十二五"初期开始,煤炭投资逐步滑落,但滑落速度逐渐放缓.大中型煤矿的基本建设投资是煤炭总投资的主要组成部分(62%~64%);然后是大中型煤矿的更新改造投资(28%~29%),勘探投资(5%~6%),小型煤矿投资比例最小(1%~4%).
Coal investment involves numerous sections,including exploration,explitation, mining,renovation,inventory etc.The dynamic interactions with complex exist within the investment system.This paper uses the system dynamics approach to forecast the coal investment demand of China during the years of 2006—2050.The results indicate that,in the 11^(th)Five-Year Plan period(2006—2010),the overall coal investment demand may flourish in China;but from the 12^(th)Five-Year period,coal investment demand may see a gradual decline with ever-decreasing speed.Having the investment structure in view,the infrastructure invesment of large and medium coal mines accounts for the main part of the total coal invesment (62%—64%),followed by the renovation investment of large and medium coal mines(28%~29%),exploratory development investment(5%~6%),and small coal mine investment (1%~4%).
出处
《北京理工大学学报》
EI
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2011年第4期489-493,共5页
Transactions of Beijing Institute of Technology
基金
国家自然科学基金资助项目(71001008)
国家教育部高等学校博士学科点专项科研基金资助课题(20101101120041)
国家教育部人文社会科学研究项目基金资助项目(09YJC630011)
北京理工大学优秀青年教师资助计划资助项目(2010Y1317)
关键词
系统动力学
煤炭投资
投资需求预测
system dynamics
coal investment
investment demand forecasting