解放后四川藏区草地畜牧业计量分析

A Quantitative Analysis on Grassland Animal Husbandry of Sichuan Tibetan Region after the Liberation

[目的]研究解放后四川藏区草地畜牧业经济的增长,以探索四川藏区草地畜牧业增长与发展的长期趋势及规律性特征。[方法]运用现代经济学增长模型和计量分析工具,采用政府公布的统计数据,利用时间序列数据对各个时期草地牧业的增长因素进行测定。[结果]四川藏区草地畜牧业有着显著的传统游牧经济特征。改革开放前,畜牧业经济增长以牲畜数量和牧业劳动力数量的增长为核心,以牲畜数量的增长为主要推动因素;改革开放后,综合生产要素的增长逐渐成为带动畜牧业经济增长的主要原因。[结论]必须转变传统的畜牧业生产方式,依靠技术进步,进一步完善社会经济制度,提高牧业劳动者的素质,同时还要有效促进牧区剩余劳动力的合理转移和有序流动,全面促进四川藏区草地畜牧业的发展。

[Objective] To study economic growth of grassland animal husbandry in Sichuan Tibetan region after the liberation and predict long-term trend and regular features of growth and development of grassland animal husbandry.[Method] Using econometric models and methods,the government statistical data after the liberation on grassland animal husbandry of Sichuan Tibetan region were analyzed,and the factors increasing economy of grassland animal husbandry were determined by analyzing time series data of different periods.[Result] The grassland animal husbandry of Sichuan Tibetan region has significant characteristics of traditional pastoral economy.Before the reform and opening-up,the increase of animal husbandry economy is mainly manifested by increase in quantity of livestock and laborers,and the increase in livestock quantity is principal promoting factor.After the reform and opening-up,the increase in integrated production factors becomes the primary cause to push the increase of animal husbandry economy.[Conclusion] Some new measures must be taken to promote the increase of animal husbandry economy of Sichuan Tibetan region,including transforming traditional production mode of animal husbandry,relying on scientific and technological advances,further improving socio-economic system,cultivating more highly skilled workforce and effectively guiding rational shift and orderly migration of surplus pasture laborers.