民勤绿洲农田生态系统服务价值变化及其影响因子的回归分析

Dynamic analysis of farmland ecosystem service value and multiple regression analysis of the influence factors in Minqin Oasis

绿洲是干旱区特有的生态系统,而农田生态系统的数量和质量的变化很大程度上决定着绿洲的变化,进而影响到区域社会经济的可持续发展。以西北干旱区典型绿洲——民勤绿洲为例,采用生态经济学的方法,对民勤绿洲2000—2009年近10年的农田生态系统服务价值进行了定量计算及其驱动力分析,结果表明:民勤农田生态系统服务价值从2000年的3.21×108元逐年增加到2009年的6.95×108元,年均增长0.374×108元,其中,单纯生态系统服务价值年均增加约0.289×108元;社会保障功能价值每年保持在1.0×108元左右;使用化肥等导致农田环境污染,使得农田生态系统损失的价值由2000年的0.43×108元增加到2009年的0.64×108元;由于节水技术的采用,水资源利用效率的提高,农业耗水价值在不断减少,平均每年减少0.104×108元;采用资源紧缺度修正后的农田生态系统服务价值比原先都有所增加,但增幅不同,系每年水资源紧缺状况不同所致。采用多元回归分析法研究了人类活动对农田生态系统服务价值变化的影响,结果表明:民勤绿洲农田生态系统服务价值的这种变化是社会经济发展水平、农业管理水平、水资源利用、种植结构转变、以及人们的生态环保意识等多种因素共同驱动下的结果。

An oasis is an unique ecosystem in arid areas.Farmland can be an important part of an oasis,the change of which in quantity and quality largely determines the extent and viability of an oasis.Therefore,any change in the value of farmland ecosystem service is related closely to rise and fall of the oasis and affects the sustainable development of the regional social economy.This paper took a typical oasis of the northwest arid area of China,namely the Minqin oasis,as an example.By using the methods of ecological economics,we calculated the farmland ecosystem service value of the Minqin oasis from 2000 to 2009,and analyzed the factors influencing the ecosystem service value.The results showed that the farmland ecosystem service value increased from $3.21×108 in 2000 to$6.95×108 in 2009,an annual average increase of $0.374×108.The simple ecosystem service value increased about $0.289×108 per year;the value of social security function was stable at about 1.0×108 per year;for the use of fertilizers,the loss in the value of farmland ecosystem service increased from $0.43×108 in 2000 to $0.64×108 in 2009;due to the adoption of water saving technologies and the improvement of water use efficiency,agricultural water consumption declined steadily,and its value decreased annually at an average decrease of $0.104×108;amended by the scarcity of resources,the value of farmland ecosystem service was greater than its original value,but the increase differed every year because the degree of water shortage varyied over the 10 years.The results from regression analysis showed that the changes in Minqin oasis farmland ecosystem service value were caused by social and economic development level,agricultural management level,water usage,growth in structural transformation and the people′s awareness of environmental protection.