时间序列分析在中国城镇居民消费水平中的应用

The application of time series analysis model in consumption of city residents

采用ARMA模型对我国1952-2008年的城镇居民消费水平进行分析,结合Eviews软件建立数学模型,并用该模型对当前值和未来值作出预测,得到误差较小、短期预测较为满意的结果.

This paper analyzed the data of consumption of city residents from 1952 to 2008 with ARMA models and established the corresponding model with Eviews package software, using this model to predict recent and several years consumption. According to the result of prediction, the ARMA model can be used to predict future value for short-term.