中国计划生育政策的回顾与展望——基于公共政策周期理论视角分析

Review and Look Forward for Population Policy in China:Based on Public Policy Cycle Theory Visual Angle

计划生育政策作为中国的一项基本国策,引发中外社会各界的争议与关注。公共政策周期理论强调,公共政策经历问题认定、政策出台,再经过执行、评估、监控、调整等环节,最终归于终结。作为一项对人口、经济、社会发展产生重大影响的公共政策,在生育政策实施过程中,进行政策监控及政策评估,对于探究政策效果及影响,正确决定政策去向及实现决策的科学化、民主化具有重要意义。本文试图在公共政策周期理论视角下,采用政策评估的科学逻辑及系统方法对生育政策进行综合全面的分析评估,并从当今中国实际国情出发,探究政策的调整方向,提出政策调整及改进的建议。本文认为,现行计划生育政策的目标已实现,中国的客观环境发生了重大变化,计划生育政策的最终目的是建立一个有利于经济社会发展的人口环境,统筹考虑政策调整、有序完善现行生育政策,促进人口长期均衡发展已正当适时。

Population policy initiates the disputes and concerns of the Chinese and foreign as a fundamental state policy of China.The cycle theory of the public policy emphasizes the public policy is gone through the question is asserted,the policy is issued,and then through of carrying out,assessing,controlling,adjusting etc.,ending after most all.Public policy has a great influence for population,economy,social development,and has great meanings while it is implemented,carry on the policy is controlled and the policy is assessed.This text attempt,under public policy cycle theory visual angle,adopt scientific logic and systems approach synthesize to population policy overall analysis assess,proceed from nowadays China＇s real national conditions,probe into the adjustment direction of the policy,propose policy adjustment and improved suggestion.This paper thinks,the goal of the population policy has already been realized,the great change has taken place in the objective environment of China.The final purpose of the population policy is to set up a people＇s environment who helps socio-economic development,consider the policy as a whole and adjust,improve the current population policy in order,promote population to be already proper and in right time in balanced development for a long time.