太湖水华危机应急预案在线风险补偿启动策略

Online Risk-reward Starting Strategy of Emergency Preplan Against Water Bloom Crisis in Taihu Lake

应急预案启动时机的选择是应急管理领域中应对危机时需要解决的关键问题。太湖水华危机代表一类具有生长速度或传播速度不确定性的突发公共卫生事件,以此为背景基于在线方法,设计了应急预案启动策略,并证明是最优竞争比策略。同时,考虑到对未知信息的预期,设计了在线风险补偿启动策略。最后对危机进行实际数值计算,并指出策略的竞争性与预案应对强度之间的关系,还有在线风险补偿策略的补偿收益与决策者风险容忍度之间的关系,研究结果具有一定的实际指导意义和参考价值。

In coping with crises,when to start an emergency preplan is a problem that calls for solution.Water bloom crisis in Taihu Lake represents a kind of public health emergency whose growth rate or diffusion speed is unexpected.Based on online theory and taking this crisis as the background,the authors present preplan starting strategy and prove it to be optimal competitive strategy.At the same time,taking into account the expectation of further information,we design an online risk-reward starting strategy.At last a practical example is given,which points out the relationship between the competitive ratio of strategy and response intensity of the preplan,and the relationship between the risk-reward and the tolerance of the decision maker.The results of the study have guiding significance and reference value to decision makers facing these crucial emergencies.