我国食品行业波动特征与周期划分

Recognition of Fluctuation Characteristics and Cycle of Chinese Food Industry

根据增长型经济波动定义,本文利用基于增长率变化的时间序列数据,描述了我国食品行业结构、价格、固定资产净值、产值、增加值、利润等指标的波动变化过程,发现我国食品行业不仅存在波动,而且波动的频率和波动幅度都要明显于我国GDP的波动。通过H-P滤波法对食品行业产出进行趋势成分和波动成分的分解,结果表明我国食品行业从1980-2009年出现过8个波动周期,且外部冲击因素增加,波动幅度加强。

According to the definition of economy fluctuation of growth form,and based on the time series data of growth form,the paper describes the fluctuation process of the indexes of industry structure,price,fix asset net value,gross output,added value,profit and so on,finding that fluctuation appears and the frequency and range of the fluctuation is more obvious than those of GDP.With the H-P filtering wave method,trend part and cycle part are separated,the result is that there are 8 cycles of fluctuations from 1980 to 2009,moreover,external shock tends to be stronger,and the range of fluctuation gets wider.