灰色关联分析在民航事故征候管理中的应用

Application of Grey Correlation Analysis in Civil Aviation Incidents Management

针对民航事故征候管理中传统统计分析方法的不足,采用灰色关联分析方法,分别求出事故征候各因素、各类型与事故征候的关联度,根据关联度大小确定出各因素、各类型对事故征候的影响程度。该研究为掌握各因素、各类型与事故征候间的定量关系提供了一种新的方法,克服了传统统计分析方法的不足,为航空安全管理者决策提供支持。

For the imperfection of the traditional statistical analysis method in aviation incidents management,grey correlation degrees between factors causing civil aviation incidents,types of civil aviation incidents and civil aviation incidents are respectively calculated by using grey correlation analysis,then according to the correlation degrees,the degree of different factors＇ influence on civil aviaton incidents will be obtained.The study gives a new method to grasp the quantitative relationships between these factors,these types and civil aviation incidents,and overcomes the imperfection of the traditional statistical analysis method,and provides a support for the decision of civil aviation safety managers.