颍河流域水资源开发潜力与承载力分析

Exploitation Potential and Carrying Capacity of Water Resources of the Yinghe River Basin

水环境污染和水资源短缺是影响颍河流域生态社会经济可持续发展的重要因素。研究通过水资源负载指数、水资源供需平衡模型分析了颍河流域水资源的开发利用潜力和人口承载力。结果表明,颍河流域水资源利用程度较高,流域整体负载指数为19.24,约一半县市的负载指数大于20,今后进一步开发的潜力较小;流域多年平均水资源量为94.51亿m3,可引用流域外水资源潜力约23.69亿m3,以水资源的最大可利用总量计算,2008年颍河流域水资源人口承载力约为2 732.88万人,低于常驻人口数量,超载幅度为10.88%;预测2020年水资源承载人口规模为3 590.87万人,高于预期人口11.62%。由于颍河流域地表水环境污染严重,如果考虑水质、供水保证率、气候变化等因素的影响,水资源实际承载力可能远小于计算值。研究结果对颍河流域合理利用水资源、促进节水治污、制定中长期社会经济发展规划有一定的参考价值。图1,表2,参18。

Water pollution and water shortage is a key factor to affect the eco-socio-economic sustainable development in the Ying River Basin.By using water load index and building water supple and demand equilibrium model,this paper analyzed the exploitation potential and population carrying capacity of the basin＇s water resources.The results showed that water load index of the overall basin was 19.24,about half of counties and cities greater than 20,which suggested a high degree of water resources utilization and small potential of further development for the basin.According to statistical data,the average amount of water resources of Yinghe River Basin is 94.51×10^8m^3.In addition,there are about 23.69×10^8m^3 of water that can be quoted from outside the basin in the future.Based on the total amount of available water,the water resources carrying capacity（WRCC） of Yinghe River Basin was 27.33 million persons in 2008,overloading 10.88%.The equilibrium model predicts that the basin＇s WRCC is 35.91 million persons in 2020,11.62% higher than the expected population.Because of serious surface water pollution,the actual WRCC may be smaller than the above values,if the effects of water quality,water supply guarantee rate and climate changing were considered.These results provide important references for Yinghe River Basin to use water resources rationally,promote saving water and pollution control and plan long-term socio-economic development.