我国系统性金融风险的成因、实证及宏观审慎对策研究

Research of Cause of Systemic Financial Crisis,Empirical Analysis and Macro Prudential Countermeasure

系统性风险是金融危机的来源,而系统性金融风险的成因是多方面的。实证结果表明,尽管我国目前的总体系统性风险处于相对安全区间,但受房地产信贷、政府债务风险较高及汇率波动、宏观环境稳定性下降等因素影响,我国整体系统性金融风险自美国金融危机以来快速上升,潜在威胁不容忽视。我国应建立和完善宏观审慎管理框架,加强逆周期调控,弱化金融机构的顺周期行为,建立风险预警,从根本上防范和化解系统性金融风险。

Financial crisis is always caused by systemic risk which comes from various financial markets.The empirical results show that our country＇s overall systemic risk is low,but the systemic risk is rising because real estate credit risk,government debt risk,exchange rate risk and macroeconomic rick become higher since the U.S.sub-prime mortgage crisis.We should adopt a macro prudential approach to regulation and supervision that strengthen the inverse cycle regulation and reduce the pro-cyclically effect.Early warding models that measure the systemic risk also should be established.