山东经济增长模型与要素分析--基于现代经济增长理论的视角

An Economic Growth Model and Its Factors for Shandong:Based on Modern Economic Growth Theories

以现代经济增长理论的视角,利用计量经济学模型分析要素对经济增长的贡献。比较综合不同的理论观点后选定现代经济增长理论作为分析框架,对四个重要模型即新古典增长模型、知识驱动内生增长模型、人力资本模型和公共支出模型逐一分析检验,认为研究山东经济增长应当以Romer内生增长模型为分析重点。发现,山东经济增长除具有资本推动这一主要特征之外,城市化进程的贡献也比较突出;全要素生产率对经济增长的贡献与人们的期待并不相符;作为发展外向型经济的重要目标,国际化对经济增长还没有起到应有的作用。

The paper analyzes the contributions of factors to economic growth in Shandong by building an econometric model based on modern economic growth theories.After analyzing and comparing four growth models including the Solow-Swan growth model,the David-Romer growth model,the Lucas-Uzawa growth model and the Barro-Sala·I·Martin growth model,the author concludes that focus should be put on Romer＇s endogenous growth model in analyzing the economic growth of Shandong province.The paper comes to the following conclusions.First,both capital accumulation and urbanization significantly promote the economic growth in Shandong.Second,total factor productivity fails to play an important role.Third,despite the accentuated goal of building an export-oriented economy in the province,internationalization has not yet played an important role in economic growth.