瓦格纳定律之英国实证检验及其对中国公共财政建设的启示——新公共管理运动背景下的探索

Empirical Analysis of Wagner's Law in United Kingdom and Inspiration for the Construction of Public Finance in China——In the perspective of New Public Management

新公共管理运动的兴起,从理论上看财政规模弱化不可避免。英国作为新公共管理运动的发源国之一,其行政管理改革充分贯穿和系统展现了新公共管理理念的精髓。以英国新公共管理运动以来(1979—2006)的财政数据为依据,对瓦格纳定律进行实证检验,具有显著的代表意义。根据英国财政数据的研究结果与新公共管理理念高度吻合,表明瓦格纳定律在英国的适应期已经结束。有理由认为,只要推行新公共管理运动,瓦格纳定律就难以得到支持。鉴于新公共管理运动的世界性,及其不断推进的必然性,应当重新审视瓦格纳定律的客观性。有鉴于此,中国应该顺应世界新公共管理运动的潮流,立足于中国现实和中国社会经济转型的发展趋势,本着服务型政府的内在要求,适时调整财政政策。

New Public Management(NPM) argues that it is a theoretical inclination of government expenditure reduction.As one of those states who initiated NPM movements,United Kingdom witnessed comprehensive implementation of the essence of NPM in public administration reforms.It's fairly representative that this paper performs an empirical analysis of Wagner's Law by studying changes in its government expenditures ever since NPM movement(1979-2006).The conclusion of this analysis firmly inosculates with the philosophy of NPM.Considering its global prevalence,it is reasonable to assume that a new worldwide reform tendency has occurred in government expenditure ever since NPM movements,which also implies the end of adaptation period of Wagner's Law.Therefore,based on economic reality and social trends,China should keep pace with NPM and adjusts fiscal policy in order to satisfy the demands of service-oriented governments.