中国创业投资波动成因研究

The Fluctuation Cause of China Venture Capital Industry

中国创业投资在其发展过程中呈现出较大的波动性。以往研究表明,过度反应和基本面变化都可能导致创业投资的波动,但二者哪一个是更为重要的波动成因,目前仍在争论中。采用中国创业投资行业2000年4月1日到2010年3月31日的投资数据,对中国创业投资波动的成因进行实证研究。研究结果表明:基本面变化是导致中国创业投资波动的主要原因。这意味着,虽然中国的创业投资表现出较大的波动性,但中国的创业投资人才正在逐步变得理性和成熟。

China venture capital industry is highly volatile in the developing process. It is well documented that overreaction and shifts in fundamentals may both cause the fluctuation, but which is more important is still in dispute. This paper made empirical analysis on the fluctuation causes based on the investments data of China venture capital industry between 1 April, 2000 and 31 March, 2010. The results show that shifts in fundamentals are a more important cause of fluctuation in the Chinese venture capital industry. The finding is consistent with the view that although the venture capital industry is highly volatile, Chinese venture investors are becoming rational and more experienced.