有管理的浮动汇率制度:中国转轨时期的选择

The Managed Floating Exchange Rate System: Choice of China in a Transition Period

在可预见的大环境下,简单地选择钉住单个货币的严格固定的汇率或者选择完全浮动的汇率,都不利于中国。有管理的浮动汇率制度符合我国战略过渡期的利益。在转轨期内,汇率制度改革可以在不预先设置时间表的前提下,着重把握以下五个方面内容:确立一中心汇率;根据贸易、投资等对外经济状况、对方国货币政策的声誉及要素流动的顺畅程度,确定一篮子货币的内容;根据经济与市场发育状况,在实行中心汇率制度过程中,逐步扩大汇率的市场浮动区间,让市场发挥更大的价格功能;配合人民币区域化过程中的资本项下开放进程,适时加快汇率的浮动进程;始终保持微弱的升值趋势,起码是最基本的币值稳定态势。汇率制度转轨,不仅涉及制度形式转变,还将涉及汇率水平调整,更重要的是,汇率制度顺利转轨还需要经济结构和调控方式变革的配合。为此,汇率制度转轨,应与宏观调控政策、经济金融改革以及资本账户管制等相协调、相配合。

In a predictable large situation,it is unfavorable to China to simply choose to fix an exchange rate or choose completely floating exchange rate of a single currency.The managed floating exchange rate accords with the benefit of China in a strategic transition period.In this period,the reform of exchange rate system should involve the following five contents without setting up a time table in advance： 1.Establishing a central exchange rate;2.Determining a set of currency contents based on foreign economic situation such as trade and investment,and the reputation of the currency policy and the smoothness of factor mobility of the country concerned;3.Expanding the market floating areas of exchange rate based on the economic and market development situation to make market play a larger price role in the process of implementing central exchange rate;4.Accelerating the process of implementing floating exchange rate in support of the process of capital opening to the lower level in the regionalization of RMB;and 5.Keeping a tendency of slight appreciation or steady value at least.The transition of exchange rate involves not only system change but also adjustment of exchange rate levels.More importantly,the transition of exchange rate system requires the support from the reform of economic structure and controlling and regulatory modes.Thus,the transition of exchange rate should correspond and coordinate with macrocontrol policy,economic finance reform and capital account management,etc.