基于土地利用/覆盖变化的珠江三角洲快速城市化地区洪灾风险驱动力分析——以佛山市为例

LUCC-based Driving Force Analysis of Flood Risk in Rapidly Urbanizing Pearl River Delta——the Case of Foshan

以珠江三角洲腹地典型城市佛山为例,运用GIS/RS技术分析了佛山市在1988-2003年期间快速城市化导致的区域土地利用/覆盖方式的巨大转变及其对洪灾风险的影响;结合佛山市1957-2005气象及水文数据的分析结果,指出受社会经济利益驱动的整治航道、大规模采沙、修建航运设施及联围建闸等人为活动显著地改变了主要水系的水动力条件和滞纳洪水的能力.此外,迅速扩张的城市化区域和平原低地的集约化农业生产区也增加了排涝压力,从而使西江、北江平原三角洲迅速发展的城市化地区面临着严峻的防汛压力.最后,从技术实施与管理层面上对佛山市洪灾风险管理对策进行了探讨.

It is examined the linkage between rapid urbanization and flood risk in the hinterland of Pearl River Delta.The case study in Foshan city analyzed dramatic changes in land use and cover change（LUCC） during 1988—2003 and subsequent environmental impacts on flood risks by using GIS and remote sensing techniques.In addition,historical analysis on meteorological and hydrological data during 1957—2005 in Foshan was performed.The results showed that in addition to natural processes,human activities driven by socio-economic factors should be responsible for the increasing level of flood risks.During the past decades dredging up the waterways,excavating sand and damming in the rivers significantly changed the hydrological condition and impaired the capacity of buffering the floods.Moreover,the substantial sprawl of impervious urban area and agricultural lands led to the increasing surface runoff and rising water levels during the flood reasons.As a result,the rapidly urbanizing area located in the Xijiang and Beijiang flood plains are facing the rising levels of flood risk than ever.Finally,countermeasures of flood risk management were discussed.