经济类农产品期货价格与现货价格的关联性实证研究——以玉米为例

Economy style agriculture future price and present price relation's demonstrative research——take corn as example

经济类农产品由于用途广泛且互有重叠,需求的价格弹性比粮食作物更富弹性,影响其价格的因素也更复杂。本文选取玉米作为经济类农产品的代表,通过检验、协整检验、Granger因果关系检验对加入世贸以来其现货与期货价格之间的关系进行了实证分析,得出玉米现货价格和期货价格之间存在着协整关系,玉米期货价格对现货价格具有比较显著的引导作用,现货价格对期货价格的引导作用不显著的结论。

Economical farm products have a lot of use fulness,its elasticity for demand being more than grains and prices are impacted with complexities.This paper selects corn as an example and explores the relationship between cash price and futures price by test of ADF,cointegration,Granger-causal.It is found that there exists cointegration relation.