“笼中虎”：一个金融制度变迁故事的解读

"Tiger in Cage":Interpretation of an Institutional Change

中国既有的经济改革过程曾经出现过许多耐人寻味的制度变迁现象,"笼中虎"便属其中比较典型的一个。这种现象产生于经济体制转换伊始的特殊时期并贯穿于迄今为止的整个改革过程;它一直对中国金融制度变迁路径的选择产生着重要影响,却长期被人们视作偶或发作的短期金融"症状"而等闲视之。通过对这一现象的初步描述与解读,本文发现,"笼中虎"的产生机制深藏于由"放权让利"改革所触发的财政与银行体系汲取能力的相向变化过程。由于国家无力在短期内修复与重建残缺的内源融资制度,最终形成的政府主导型经济增长模式只有倚重以国有银行体系为核心的外源融资机制。作为这一过程合乎逻辑的制度后果,居民储蓄存款被迫承担起了支持长期经济增长的责任,而为了确保在银行体系账面上迅速积累的居民储蓄存款的稳定,国家又不得不慷慨兜揽了与此相关的几乎全部金融风险。尽管在既有的改革过程中"笼中虎"罕有发作甚至长期表现平稳,但对其潜在风险的担忧与防范却牢牢钳制着金融改革路径的选择。当随后的金融制度演进需要市场因素的成长时,才发觉金融市场化的空间已被既有的改革逻辑"挤出",中国金融改革进程从此便注定长期遭受"市场化悖论"的困扰。

By far,the economic reform in China has witnessed many thought-provoking institutional changes,among which the most representative one is presumably the 'tiger in cage' whose presence was perceived early from the outset of and has accompanied the whole process of the reform.This phenomenon,despite its significant effect on the choice of financial reform strategies,has,nevertheless,been long dismissed as a short-term symptom happening occasionally and thus taken for granted.Exploration of this insight in the paper helps to reveal that the 'tiger in cage' actually resulted from the relative changes (opposite in direction) in fund-raising capacity of the fiscal system and banking system caused by decentralization.Due to government inability to reconstruct the weak internal financing mechanism in the short run,the government-oriented pattern of economic growth could only rely on the external financing mechanism represented by the state banking system.Naturally,as a logical institutional outcome,household saving deposits had to act as the longterm financial supporter of economic growth.In this case,in order to guarantee stability of the fast-accumulating deposits on banks' account,the government had to take all of the associated financial risks.Regardless of the fact that this tiger has seldom broken out and even been behaving well,the concern over its potential risks has severely restricted the choice of reform strategies.In the end,it turns out that when the introduction of market elements become necessary for the sound evolution of the financial system,the room for financial marketization has already been crowded out,thus leading to the doomed curse of 'marketization paradox' at present.