弗里德曼规则还是泰勒规则——信贷周期下的我国货币政策选择

Friedman Rule or Taylor Rule?——China's Monetary Policy Choices in Credit Cycles

本文在一个包含银行部门的真实经济周期模型中讨论了银行信贷和中国经济波动的关系。在此基础上,本文进而比较了不同的货币政策规则通过信贷因素对我国宏观经济的影响。本文的分析结果表明,我国的宏观经济波动具有信贷周期的特点,并且模型模拟出的产出、实际利率和投资等主要变量的相对标准差都与实际经济数据相吻合;同时,脉冲响应分析的结论显示,相比弗里德曼的单一规则,泰勒规则对我国实际经济变量有着更好的控制力。

This paper uses a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model (DSGE) with financial intermediates to analyze the influence of financial credit on China economic fluctuation.Calibrating the model with the data of 1992～2009,this paper also compares the effect of different monetary policy rules.The conclusion shows that the fluctuations of macroeconomic variables in the model fit the real economy.The results from impulse response function imply that under Taylor rule,the macro-economy shows less fluctuations compared with that under Friedman rule;therefore,this paper provides a definite policy direction to monetary authorities.