猪重大疫病风险评估体系应用研究

Applied Research of Risk Assessment System for Pig Major Infectious Diseases

为了分析评估猪重大疫病发生风险,为防控决策提供基础依据,依据评价指标选取原则,通过调查分析、资料检索及专家论证,筛选确定风险指标;利用层次分析法确定设置风险指标权重;依照各项指标的关联性,根据概率论运算法则和数理统计加权综合法,建立评估模型;依据综合评估原理和运算法则,运用计算机技术建立综合估算系统。通过研究,建立了由评估指标结构框架、指标权重系数、指标量化评价标准、评估数学模型、综合估算系统和风险等级标准组成的,适合柳州当地实际的区域性、内源性猪重大疫病风险评估体系。应用表明建立的猪重大疫病风险评估体系可从时间、空间、水平三方面评估风险,应用于基层防控有现实指导意义。

In order to evaluate the risk of pig disease occurrence and provides evidence for the prevention decision,we did this research.Based on the evaluation index selection principle,through investigation and analysis,information from expert reasoning,to screen determines the risk index.By using AHP（Analytic Hierarchy Process） to set the risk index weight.In accordance with each index of relevance,according to probability algorithms and mathematical statistics,to establish the evaluation model of weighted synthesis.Based on comprehensive evaluation principle and algorithms,we used computer technology to set up a comprehensive estimation system.Through this research,we established the assessment system which suit to liuzhou local actual regional,endogenous pig major disease risk the evaluation index structure framework,index weight coefficient,index quantification evaluation standards,evaluation mathematical model,comprehensive estimation system and risk rating standard.The Application shows that this pig disease risk assessment system could evaluation terms of three aspects of time,space,and level,and it has practical significance for basie control.