天津城市居民甲状腺乳头状癌发病率和构成比的长期时间趋势分析

Secular trends study on the incidence and constituent ratio of papillary thyroid cancer in Tianjin

目的对1981-2006年期间天津城市居民的甲状腺乳头状癌(PTC)的发病情况进行分析。方法采用描述流行病学方法计算PTC的平均发病率,性别、年龄别发病率以及PTC占全部甲状腺癌新发病例的构成比情况。依据时期发病率,采用Joinpoint回归模型计算26年来PTC发病率的年度百分比变化(APC%)。结果 1981-2006年天津市居民PTC平均发病率为1.30/10万,其中女性为2.14/10万。近26年PTC的发病率年均增长6.7%,超过总体甲状腺癌的年均增长幅度。女性PTC的发病率明显高于男性,从1981的0.87/10万增加到2006年4.70/10万,增加了4.4倍,年均增长6.2%。26年来PTC发病在甲状腺癌中所占的构成比从1981年的11.1%上升到2006年的69.5%,增加了5.3倍。女性与男性PTC的发病比呈现20～49岁年龄组高峰。结论近年来女性PTC的发病率和构成比均呈逐年快速升高的趋势,特别是男女性别比存在特殊的年龄高峰期,提示仍需进一步研究寻找相关的危险因素和针对性的预防措施。

Objective To analyze the incidence of papillary thyroid cancer （PTC） between 1981 and 2006 in Tianjin. Methods Descriptive epidemiological methods were conducted. The crude incidence rate, sex, age-specific incidence rate and the constituent ratio in thyroid cancer were computed. Annal percent change （APC%） of the PTC incidence for 26 years old was estimated by the Joinpoint regression model. Results The incidence of PTC was 1.30/100,000 between 1981 and 2006 and 2.14/100,000 in female. APC of PTC was 6.7% in recent 26 years, which was more than the speed of thyroid cancer. The incidence of PTC in female was higher than that in male, which showed a 4.4 fold increase with 0.87/100,000 in 1981 and 4.70/100,000 in 2006. APC of PTC in female was 6.2%. The constituent ratio of FrI＇C in thyroid cancer increased from 11.1% in 1981 to 69.5% in 2006, with a 5.3 fold increase. The sex ratio of the incidence for female to male showed a peak on the 20-49 years old. Condusion The incidence and constituent ratio of PTC in female show a rapidly increased tendency with time in recent years, especially in the peak of sex ratio on the specific age group. It suggests that further researches on the risk factors and preventive efforts should be made in the future.