中小企业生存分析——以湖南省工业企业为样本

The survival analysis of small and medium-sized enterprises——based on the industry of Hunan Province

本文运用湖南省1998-2007年新成立的54573家注册资本在1000万以下的工业中小企业数据具体分析了我国中小企业的生存状况及影响因素。主要的研究方法为生命表方法和加速失效时间模型等生存分析方法。研究主要发现:我国湖南省地区中小企业死亡危险随时间呈"U"型关系,企业在成立9.5年左右时死亡危险开始增大;企业原始规模、企业所在行业的行业规模以及工业增加值率、销售利润率与产值利税率三个效率指标都与企业生存存在显著的正向相关关系;但行业成长、流动资金周转率和全员劳动生产率与企业生存不存在显著的相关关系;垄断企业的生存状况更好,技术密集型中小企业的生存状况较差,区域集聚地区中小企业具有更大的死亡危险;利率对中小企业生存存在显著的负向影响,而基于城市层面的GDP增长率对中小企业生存存在显著的正向影响;相对于私营企业,湖南省地区内资企业和外资企业的生存表现更差。

A detailed analysis on the Small and Medium sized Enterprises（SMEs） survival and its determinants are conducted,based on a sample of 54,573 new-registered industrial SMEs in Hunan Province,whichs capitals are all below 10 million Yuan and establish during the period of 1998-2007.The main research methods used are life table method and accelerated failure time model,they are mostly used in the survival analysis.The empirical results show that the risk of enterprise death follows a U-shape pattern relationship with the time for SMEs in Hunan Province,and the death risk begins to increase after nine and half years since the establishment of enterprises.The indicators,such as the original size of enterprises,industrial sector size,industrial added value rate,sales margin and profit tax rate of output value,all have significant positive impacts on business survival.However,the industry growth,liquidity capital turnover rate,and all-personnel labor productivity have no significant correlation with the business survival;Monopoly enterprises have better living conditions,the SMEs with high intensive technology have worse living conditions,SMEs located in agglomerate regions have greater risk of death.The interest rate has a significant negative impact on the survival of SMEs.While the GDP growth rate based on the city-level has a significant positive impact on the survival of SMEs.Vis-à-vis private enterprises,the survival performance of state-owned enterprises and foreign-funded enterprises in Hunan Province are even worse.