中国金融发展会影响能源消费吗?——基于动态面板数据的分析

Does Financial Development Affect Energy Consumption in China?——Based on Dynamic Panel Data Model

本文构建三个衡量金融发展的指标,运用面板数据系统广义矩(SGMM)方法研究了金融发展与经济增长、能源消费之间的关系。结果发现,在中国整体层面上,金融发展与能源消费之间有着紧密的联系:金融机构存贷款比率和非国有部门银行信贷比重与能源消费之间存在正相关关系,而FDI比率与能源消费之间存在负相关关系。在区域层面上,东部地区,FDI比率对该地区的能源消费具有显著的负面影响;中部地区,金融发展对该地区的能源消费影响不显著;西部地区,金融相关比率和非国有部门信贷比重对该地区的能源消费有显著的正面影响。相应的政策建议是:制订能源消费政策,需要考虑金融发展的影响因素;提高FDI质量,降低能源消费;积极发展低碳金融,促进节能减碳;优化区域金融资源配置。

This paper constructs three indicators of financial development to study the relationship between financial development, economic growth and energy consumption. The results show that, on the entire country level, there is close linkage between financial development and energy consumption： There is a positive relationship between the energy consumption and the deposits and loans ratio offinancial institutions, the credits ratio of the nonstate-owned sector, and a negative relationship between the energy consumption and the FDI ratio. On the regional level, the FDI ratio has significant negative impact on the energy consumption for the eastern regions ; the impact of financial development on the energy consumption is not significant for the central regions; the financial interrelation ratio and the credits ratio of the non-state-owned sector has significant positive impact on the energy consumption for the western regions. The corresponding policy implication： The energy consumption policy should take the financial development factor into consideration; Decrease energy consumption by improving the FDI quality; Develop lowcarbon finance and facilitate energy conservation and carbon reduction; Optimize the allocation of the regional financial resources.